Brazil’s 2-1 win over Japan turned on late control. Kaishu Sano, already booked in the 12th minute, put Japan ahead in the 29th, but Casimiro equalised in the 56th minute with an assist from Gabriel before Gabriel Martinelli struck in the 90th minute, assisted by Bruno Guimarães.
Brazil’s pressure was clear in the numbers. They had 69% possession, 19 shots to Japan’s 5, 7 shots on target to 2, and 6 corners to 2. Japan defended for long spells and committed 13 fouls, while Brazil committed 4.
The result also matched the market more than the model. The market gave Brazil a 54% win chance, compared with the model’s 42%, while the model saw Japan as more live at 30% than the market’s 19%.
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (de-vig) | 54% | 27% | 19% |
Information only. No wagers.
Zavit match desk — generated from live match data