Germany’s 1-1 draw with Paraguay showed how quickly control can be challenged. Paraguay struck first in the 42nd minute through Julio Enciso, assisted by Matías Galarza Fonda, before Kai Havertz levelled in the 54th minute from Florian Wirtz’s pass.
Germany dominated the numbers without turning pressure into victory. They had 75% possession, 21 shots, 6 on target and 16 corners, while Paraguay produced 7 shots, 3 on target and 6 corners. The gap in control was clear, but the score stayed level.
The result ran against both expectation lines. Germany were rated at 66% by the model and 71% by the market, while a draw sat at 21% and 19%. The late edge also hardened, with yellow cards to Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala, Andrés Cubas and Matías Galarza Fonda.
| Model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market (de-vig) | 71% | 19% | 11% |
Information only. No wagers.
Zavit match desk — generated from live match data